Journal of School of Public Health and Institute of Public Health Research

fa بررسی و پیش بینی وضع آلاینده های هوای شهر کرمان با مدل سری های زمانی Forecasting ambient air pollutants by time series models in Kerman, Iran بهداشت عمومی Public Health پژوهشي Research زمینه و هدف : آلودگی هوا یکی از عمده ترین مشکلات شهر های بزرگ در کشور های در حال توسعه است و می تواند عوارض منفی بسیاری بر سلامت انسانها داشته باشد. لذا مطالعه تغییرات این آلاینده ها می تواند کمک مهمی برای برنامه ریزی و مقابله با آنها باشد. هدف از این مطالعه بررسی و پیش بینی تغییرات آلاینده ها در هوای شهر کرمان بود. روش کار: در این مطالعه اکولوژیک اطلاعات هفت آلاینده ی مهم شهر کرمان شامل NO, CO, NO2, NOx, PM10, SO2, O3 از ابتدای سال 1385 تا آخر شهریور 1389 از سازمان حفاظت محیط زیست کرمان استعلام شد. سپس اطلاعات بصورت متوسط در ماه محاسبه و به کمک روشهای آماری، الگوهای سری زمانی تک متغیره برای هر آلاینده برازش و مقادیر آن پیش بینی شد. نتایج: آلاینده ها در هوای کرمان روند تقریباً ثابتی داشتند، به جز مونواکسید کربن که به طور معنی داری در حال کاهش و گرد و غبار که روند افزایشی داشت. همه آلاینده ها الگوی فصلی داشتند. الگو های سری زمانی با روند فصلی 12، 3، 8، 12، 12، 12، 6 ماه به ترتیب برای آلاینده های NO, CO, NO2, NOx, PM10, SO2, O3 برازش شد. نتیجه گیری: میزان تولید مونوکسید کربن در کرمان رو به کاهش است و یک علت احتمالی آن طرح جمع آوری خود رو های فرسوده می تواند باشد. اما میزان گرد و غبار رو به افزایش و در بعضی فصول سال در حد غیر بهداشتی است ولذا باید تدابیر لازم برای مقابله با آن بکار گرفته شود. 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Student, Department of Environmental Health Engineering, Faculty of Public Health, Kerman Medical University, Kerman, Iran Pourmousa, R., MS.c. Lecturer, Department of Statistics, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Shahid Bahonar University, Kerman, Iran Received: Apr 3, 2012 Accepted: Feb 14, 2013 ABSTRACT Background and Aim: Air pollution is one of the most important problems of big cities in developing countries and can have several negative health effects on humans. Therefore studying these pollutants can help in developing programs for air pollution control. The aim of this study was to estimate and predict the changes of air pollutants in Kerman, Iran. Materials and Methods: In this ecological study, data about seven important air pollutants in Kerman including NO, CO, NO2, NOx, PM10, SO2 and O3 from March 2006 until September 2010 was inquired from the Kerman Province Environmental Protection Agency. Then the data was calculated as averages per month and by incorporating time series models, predictions were done for each pollutant. Results: All of the pollutants were steady in Kerman, except CO which is significantly decreasing and PM10 which is increasing. All of the pollutants had a seasonal pattern. Time series models with a 12, 3, 8, 12, 12, 12 and 6 month seasonal pattern were fit for O3 , SO2 , PM10 , NOx , NO2 , CO and NO consecutively. Conclusion: The production of ambient CO is decreasing in Kerman and one reason is probably replacing and retiring old automobiles. However PM10 is increasing in Kerman and in most seasons it is above standard and therefore control initiatives should be implemented. آلودگی هوا, ذرات معلق, کرمان, سری زمانی, دی اکسید گوگرد, ازن, اکسیدهای نیتروژن, مونو اکسید کربن Air pollution, PM10, Kerman, Time Series, Sulfur dioxide, Ozone, Nitrogen oxides, Carbon monoxide 75 86 http://sjsph.tums.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-1-17&slc_lang=fa&sid=1 Fatemeh Mansouri فاطمه منصوری No MS.c. Student, Dept of Environmental Health Engineering, Faculty of Public Health, Kerman Medical University, Kerman, Iran دانشجوی دوره کارشناسی ارشد، گروه مهندسی بهداشت محیط، دانشکده بهداشت، دانشگاه علوم پزشکی کرمان Narges Khanjani نرگس خانجانی n_khanjani@kmu.ac.ir Yes Ph.D. Assistant Professor, Department of Epidemiology and Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, Kerman Medical University, Kerman, Iran استادیار، گروه اپیدمیولوژی و عضو پیوسته گروه مهندسی بهداشت محیط، دانشکده بهداشت، دانشگاه علوم پزشکی کرمان Laleh Ranandeh kalankesh لاله راننده کلانکش No MS.c. Student, Department of Environmental Health Engineering, Faculty of Public Health, Kerman Medical University, Kerman, Iran دانشجوی دوره کارشناسی ارشد، گروه مهندسی بهداشت محیط، دانشکده بهداشت، دانشگاه علوم پزشکی کرمان Reza Pourmousa رضا پورموسی No MS.c. Lecturer, Department of Statistics, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Shahid Bahonar University, Kerman, Iran مربی، بخش آمار، دانشکده ریاضی و کامپیوتر، دانشگاه شهید با هنر، کرمان