A Rezayan Ghayehbashi, E Marzban,
Volume 12, Issue 4 (2-2020)
Abstract
Background and Objective: Global macro trends on the one hand, and domestic trends and effective factors on the other, have put the future of the Iran's environment in a state of uncertainty with concern. In a complex and unpredictable environment, the use of scenario thinking (based on identifying and detecting future drivers and uncertainties) can provide tangible and comprehensible images of consistent or probable futures in multiple scenarios. The purpose of this study was to describe the stories and develop images of the future of the Iran's environment in the form of consistent and probable scenarios.
Materials and Methods: The method used in this study was a scenario-based planning which was designed and implemented in eight steps. The method of data collection in this study was qualitative using interview, expert panel and Delphi survey. Micmac software and Scenario wizard software were used for data analysis.
Results: The findings of this study can be divided into two parts. The first section included identifying and classifying key factors, driving forces and related uncertainties. In this regard, five driving forces including "population", "global warming", "environmental discourse", "development process management" and "technologies" were identified and the influence/dependence relationships among the factors were analyzed. The second section identified and described possible and consistent scenarios based on the relevant drivers and uncertainties.
Conclusion: Based on the research findings, five probable and consistent scenarios including: (a) the secret of survival, (b) management against the land, (c) climate migration, (d) the return of the cranes and (e) technology against the land, were explained and compared. Understanding the narratives of each scenario and comparing their desirability enable actors and decision makers to influence the process of creating the future. Accordingly, the development of environmentally friendly technologies as well as eco management, are the basis for planning future actions in this field.
Fariba Ebrahimi Fini, Farzam Babaei Semiromi, Mohammad Reza Tabesh, Mahdi Jalili Ghazizade, Amir Hushang Heidari,
Volume 15, Issue 3 (12-2022)
Abstract
Background and Objective: The critical step of policymaking and planning for the local governments to select appropriate waste management methods, is comprehensive information on solid waste generation. Waste generation rate and composition may vary from year to year because many factors influence it. This research identified the most important factors influencing the future of household waste generation and composition in Tehran, and how these factors affect each other.
Materials and Methods: This research is based on future studies methods which are carried out using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. Due to the nature of this research, structural analysis, Micmac software and Delphi survey were used.
Results: In this regard, after holding many meetings with 22 of the experts as the statistical population of the research, 14 effective factors were identified. The influential factors were then analyzed in the framework of the Cross-impact matrix in the Micmac software. The results showed that what can be understood from the state of the dispersion page of the variables indicated the system instability, with most of the variables dispersed around the diagonal axis of the screen.
Conclusion: Finally, considering the high scores received by direct and indirect influences, 10 key factors were identified. “Economic Growth”, “Digital Transformation and Technological Advances”, “Amendment of Existing laws, Enactment and Implementation of New and Specialized Laws”, and “Increased Awareness about waste and Attraction of Citizen Participation through Education and Provision of Information” were identified among these 10 factors as the driving forces influencing generation and composition, of household waste in Tehran in the Next Twenty Years.
