Sara Ordoo, Reza Arjmandi, Abdolreza Karbassi, Ali Mohammadi, Jamal Ghodosi,
Volume 14, Issue 4 (3-2022)
Abstract
Background and Objective: The present research has been performed to investigate the opportunities and challenges facing the Iran’s renewable energies development to reduce climate change and improve health and represent managerial solutions in power generation sector by SWOT-AHP analysis models.
Materials and Methods: Using literature reviews and survey, the SWOT was applied to identify internal factors includeding strengths (S), and weaknesses (W), and external factors includeding opportunities (O), and threats (T). The strategies were drived to develop renewable energy in Iran. The proposal strategies were ranked by using the SWOT matrix and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model.
Results: According to the SWOT matrix calculations, total scores of internal and external factors were found as 4.1 and 4.4 of 5, respectively, which show high potentials of internal factors and opportunities. The most importannt factor of strengths (S) was found to be the great potentials of solar energy sources in Iran. The main priority of opportunities (O) is supportive laws to encourage the private sector. The most important weakness (W) was lack of comprehensive knowledge of managers and politicians about the benefits of renewable energy. The main threats (T) were low tendency of private invests, unpredictable inflation in Iran, and low prices for fossil fuels.
Conclusion: The results of this research represent in four categories of SO, ST, WT, WO strategies. The important SO strategy is increasing guaranteed electricity purchase tariffs (GEPTs), and creating the renewable energy market. The most important strategies of ST were establishment of the renewable energy fund and assessment of exporting electricity by the private sector. The most dominant strategy of WT was modifying guaranteed electricity purchase contracts. The strategies of WO were found to be as following; convincing government agencies to provide the necessary infrastructure and support for knowledge-based companies.
Ali Ahmadi Orkomi,
Volume 15, Issue 1 (4-2022)
Abstract
Background and Objective: Greenhouse gas emission estimation and submitting a regular national report on climate change has been underway since 2003. Given the importance of this issue, estimating emissions at the provincial level and assessing local emission management capacities will make the country more agile in reporting and emission control.
Materials and Methods: The greenhouse gas emission in four sectors as energy, industry, agriculture, forestry and other landuse and wastes and all sub-sectors of these areas was determined in Guilan Province. The annual emission has been estimated using the 2019 activity data and the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) software.
Results: The gross and per capita greenhouse gases’ emission of the province are 18.5 Mt and 7.31 tons per year carbon dioxide equivalent, respectively, so that the annual ecological supply of forests to capture greenhouse gases is estimated at 2 Mt. The thermal power plants, residential consumption (except electricity) and transportation sectors are the major emission sectors in the province with 36, 23 and 19% share, respectively. Out of four scenarios, the wind farms development scenario (nominal capacity 3 GW) and 10% energy savings in the residential sector reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 9% and 2.9%, respectively. The cumulative impact of all the proposed scenarios by 2030 will also lead to a 13% reduction in emissions compared to the current situation.
Conclusion: Considering the existing capacities in the clean power generation and energy saving in the residential sector, it is possible to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases by 13% by 2030. Since the proposed scenarios are regionalized and do not depend on management decisions in other provinces, they have good feasibility. Consequently, if clean power generation plans are established in other provinces and energy consumption management in the transport sector is applied at the national scale, it may be expected that the country's minimum commitments (4% reduction compared to 2010) will be met.
