A Rezayan Ghayehbashi, E Marzban,
Volume 12, Issue 4 (2-2020)
Abstract
Background and Objective: Global macro trends on the one hand, and domestic trends and effective factors on the other, have put the future of the Iran's environment in a state of uncertainty with concern. In a complex and unpredictable environment, the use of scenario thinking (based on identifying and detecting future drivers and uncertainties) can provide tangible and comprehensible images of consistent or probable futures in multiple scenarios. The purpose of this study was to describe the stories and develop images of the future of the Iran's environment in the form of consistent and probable scenarios.
Materials and Methods: The method used in this study was a scenario-based planning which was designed and implemented in eight steps. The method of data collection in this study was qualitative using interview, expert panel and Delphi survey. Micmac software and Scenario wizard software were used for data analysis.
Results: The findings of this study can be divided into two parts. The first section included identifying and classifying key factors, driving forces and related uncertainties. In this regard, five driving forces including "population", "global warming", "environmental discourse", "development process management" and "technologies" were identified and the influence/dependence relationships among the factors were analyzed. The second section identified and described possible and consistent scenarios based on the relevant drivers and uncertainties.
Conclusion: Based on the research findings, five probable and consistent scenarios including: (a) the secret of survival, (b) management against the land, (c) climate migration, (d) the return of the cranes and (e) technology against the land, were explained and compared. Understanding the narratives of each scenario and comparing their desirability enable actors and decision makers to influence the process of creating the future. Accordingly, the development of environmentally friendly technologies as well as eco management, are the basis for planning future actions in this field.
Seyyed Shahram Naghibzadeh, Mazaher Moeinaddini, Mehdi Zafaranieh,
Volume 17, Issue 3 (12-2024)
Abstract
Background and Objective: Identiying the most optimal solution has long been an significant challenge for waste management decision-makers. This study aims to develop a decision support system to identify optimal environmental and economic scenarios for waste management.
Materials and Methods: This study presents the development and application of a decision support system that estimates the environmental burden and cost of waste using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Life Cycle Cost (LCC) tools. The system then identifies optimal environmental and economic scenarios for waste management through a linear programming model. Data from the Karaj waste management system were utilized to apply and validate the decision support system.
Results: The outputs of the linear programming model in this system included one scenario based on minimizing environmental impacts and two scenarios based on minimizing costs imposed on the Karaj waste management system (MSWS). In both the environmental and second economic scenarios, incineration contributed the most to waste management, whereas composting was the dominant method in the first economic scenario. Additionally, recycling the maximum possible amount of recyclable materials was a common feature in all three scenarios, due to its environmental and economic benefits.
Conclusion: The result of this study demonstrate that the current Decision Support System can provide optimal environmental and economic scenarios for waste management to the decision-makers in the field. This is achieved by considering the inherent differences in the types of waste produced, the technologies employed, and the processing costs associated with each waste management system.
