Background and Objectives: Prostate cancer is one of the most common cancers among Iranian men and has shown a marked increase in both incidence and mortality over recent decades. This study aimed to analyze temporal trends in prostate cancer incidence and mortality in Iran using an Age–Period–Cohort (APC) analytical framework.
Methods: Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 for Iranian males aged 45 years and older during 1992–2021. Data were stratified into eight 5-year age groups and six 5-year time periods. APC analysis was conducted using the second-order difference method, and Joinpoint regression was employed to assess temporal trends in risk factors.
Results: In 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate reached 30.05 per 100,000 population, and the mortality rate reached 10.66 per 100,000 representing increases of 105.96% and 14.99%, respectively, compared to 1992. Age effects were positively associated with both incidence and mortality. The period effect peaked during 2002–2006. Cohort analysis revealed that younger birth cohorts exhibited a slower acceleration in incidence rates. Among risk factors, the disease burden attributable to smoking increased by 17.1%, while the protective effects of low calcium intake and low milk consumption diminished over time.
Conclusion: Rising incidence and mortality are shaped by age, period, and cohort effects. The relative decline in younger cohorts underscores the need for targeted prostate cancer screening programs. Strengthening public health education policies and improving access to diagnostic services can reduce the disease burden.
