Showing 9 results for Epidemic
I Sharifi, F Zamani, Mr Aflatoonian, Ar Fekri,
Volume 4, Issue 1 (4-2008)
Abstract
Background & objective: In Iran, cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) as a health problem is increasing and presenting two epidemiological forms Zoonotic CL (ZCL) and anthroponotic CL (ACL). The objective of the present study was to introduce the CL epidemic in Baft district, Kerman province.
Methods: This study was conducted in 3 villages Soltanabad, Vakilabad and Shahmaran as a census between spring and autumn of 1998 in Orzoeihe region, Baft district. Various epidemiological aspects of this epidemic including prevalence and related demographic factors, diagnosis by direct smears, identification of the causative species by immunological and biological methods were determined.
Results: Population of the 3 villages was 13721 mean 21.8±13.9 years, 50.7% males and 49.3% females.. The prevalence rate of 12.3% with mean age of 16.3±12.1 years were infected. Most of the cases were in 10-20 years of age and in Soltanabad (30.6%). The mean number of lesions was 2.58, majority with ≥2 lesions, frequently located on the legs and hands. No previous history of CL scar were observed. All 100 IFAT, 30 ELISA tests and 18 inoculated mice showed L.major as the overall causative agent.
Conclusions: This is the first epidemic of CL occurred in the southern villages of Baft district with high severity in all age and sex groups in a new agricultural region. Probably the source of infection was the new comers who arrived the region from endemic areas for agricultural purposes and infecting the gerbils. Thus, this new agricultural development has created an extraordinary suitable condition for propagation of rodents and sand fly populations, then the occurrence of the new epidemic in rural residence, consequently.
K Etemad, A Heidari, K Nadafi, Mh Panahi, E Ahmadnejad, Sh Malekafzali, M Najmi, E Idani, H Amiri, Z Khorami, N Rajaee Behbahani , F Davoodi, S Taravatmanesh, A Malekifar, M Nejatifar, M Lotfi,
Volume 12, Issue 1 (6-2016)
Abstract
Background and Objectives: Ahvaz has become one of the most polluted cities in the world. Only on 11 November 2013, over one thousand residents in Khuzestan Province attended the nearest health center with severe symptoms, particularly shortness of breath, cough, wheezing, and high blood pressure. During a week, more than 7 thousand patients were registered with this syndrome. This study was conducted to investigate the evidence for the confirmation of an epidemic in acute respiratory syndrome among the residents of Ahwaz in November 2013.
Methods: In this cross-sectional study, we evaluated the data of the use of drugs related to acute respiratory attacks from November 2008 to 2013 in Ahvaz. Then, we conducted a descriptive study on the general population. The sample size was 120 and the study participants included different segments of the general population. The data collection tool was a researcher-made questionnaire and the data were analyzed using SPSS.18.
Results: The use of the respiratory drugs increased from 2008 to 2013. The drug consumption was markedly higher in November 2013. In the study of the general population, 93% of the participants declared that they had never seen a similar event, and 92.5% mentioned that they had never heard of a similar occurrence.
Conclusion: Due to the significant increase in respiratory medicine in November 2013 and the unexpected nature of the event, an epidemic seems to be obvious.
Z Torabi, Sh Nematollahi, E Ahmadnezhad, K Holakoie Naieni ,
Volume 14, Issue 2 (9-2018)
Abstract
Background and Objectives: Epidemics of diarrhea caused by contaminated food and water occur frequently worldwide, especially in developing countries. The aim of this study was to identify the factors contributing to the development and spread of diarrhea epidemics caused by Shigella flexneri in Isfahan in the spring of 2015.
Methods: Following the first reports and activation of the surveillance system, a matched case-control study was conducted in 360 cases with diarrhea and 360 controls. Data were gathered using a questionnaire, and conditional logistic regression was used to provide adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals.
Results: Consumption of contaminated fresh vegetable (OR=4.50, 95% CI=2.88-7.01) was the source of the epidemic. Contact with similar patients (OR=7.19, 95% CI=4.26-12.12), presence of similar patients in the family (OR=33.2, 95% CI=13.64-80.82), food consumption on special events (party, wedding ceremony, funeral, etc.) (OR=1.67, 95% CI=1.06-2.62), being a government employee (OR=3.08, 95% CI=1.64-5.78) and being illiterate (OR=2.91, 95% CI=1.10-7.67) were the risk factors of the spread of the epidemic.
Conclusion: In this study, consumption of fresh vegetable contaminated with Shigella flexneri was the source of the infection. According to the Epidemic Management Team, contamination occurred due to non-standard wastewater irrigation of agricultural lands. Therefore, it is important to consider the standards of agricultural production and compilation of a comprehensive program to improve the status of the wastewater purification system in the environmental sciences by the relevant organizations to prevent diarrhea epidemics.
Sedighe Sadat Tabatabaei Far, Taha Kushki, Mohammad Jamshidi, Sajad Delavari,
Volume 17, Issue 2 (9-2021)
Abstract
Background and Objectives: The health sector will face a shortage of manpower during crises. The sustainability and retention of human resources during these conditions are vital. The purpose of this study was to explain possible policies and strategies to strengthen health workers during the crisis and prevent them from leaving the organizations and hospitals.
Methods: This was a scoping review research to find strategies for retention of human resources during epidemics. English and Persian databases were searched and relevant studies were selected and reviewed. The key pieces of information obtained were then categorized. Finally, suggested efficient policies and strategies were summarized and reported.
Results: A total of 168 different articles were collected. After excluding irrelevant studies, 21 articles were selected and fully reviewed. The results were classified into six main categories of policy-making as well as strategies to implement them.
Conclusion: Considering the epidemic situations, in order to strengthen and support human resources in times of crisis, it is recommended that policymakers and decision-makers of the health sector focus their attention on six major topics including education reform, financial support, psychological support, social and welfare support, professional support, and development of infrastructures in deprived and crisis-stricken areas. The important point about suggested strategies is that they need to be in accordance with the ongoing situation of their target societies, as we know that underdeveloped, developing and developed countries have a different set of circumstances and therefore require different priorities and policies.
Sadegh Kargarian-Marvasti , Malihe Hasannezhad , Jamile Abolghasemi,
Volume 17, Issue 2 (9-2021)
Abstract
Background and Objectives: This study aimed to investigate the effective factors in the survival/hazard time of Covid-19 patients in three waves of epidemic.
Methods: All 880 Covid-19 patients were included in this prospective cohort study using the census method. Polymerase chain reaction was used to diagnose Covid-19. The survival status of these patients was followed up for 4 months. The analysis of this study was based on the time of infection in three epidemic waves in IRAN. To analyze the data, the Kaplan-Meier nonparametric approach and Cox proportional hazards regression model were used. Survival distributions were compared in three epidemic waves using the R software (version 3.6.2) (P<0.05).
Results: We diagnosed 880 positive case of Covid-19 using PCR test on 2269 susspected people who had respiratory symptomps. At the end of 1-year follow-up, cumulative incidence (risk) of Covid-19 was estimated 7%. Effective factors in the survival time of patients with Covid-19 based on Cox multivariate regression model were: 1- Age 2- Intensity of infection (Hospitalization) 3- Heart disease 4- Epidemic Wave and 5- Transmission mode of the disease (P <0.05). The Kaplan-Meier approach and log rank test (Mantel-Cox) showed a significant difference in the survival rate in three epidemic waves (P = 0.018).
Conclusion: Elderly patients, especially those with a history of heart disease, are at higher risk of death than other groups. In addition to regular screening, these patients will need active monitoring, especially at the time of hospitalization.
S Heidari, M Karami, Sm Zahraei, I Sedighi, F Azimian Zavareh,
Volume 17, Issue 3 (12-2021)
Abstract
Background and Objectives: Given the importance of the early detection of any outbreak or change in the trend of meningitis, this study was conducted to estimate the fixed and dynamic alarm threshold levels of meningitis and its outbreak in Iran.
Materials and Methods: In this study, the data of all patients from 20¬ March 2016 to 20 March 2019 were extracted from the National Meningitis Disease Surveillance System. Alarm threshold levels were calculated separately for different seasons and provinces. To determine the alarm threshold levels, four methods of Upper Control Limit (UCL), relative increase, statistical cut off points, and recommendations provided by the World Health Organization were used.
Results: The alarm threshold levels for confirmed cases were determined for Iran according to the upper limits of cumulative sum (CUSUM) algorithm and the statistical cut off points based on the 90th percentile, 2 cases per day for Iran. The fixed amount was 3 to 5 cases per week in populations under 30,000 and 5 to 7 per week in populations between 30,000 and 100,000. According to the relative increase method, a 30% increase in one week compared to previous weeks was considered as the threshold level.
Conclusion: The use of alarm threshold levels reported in this study can be a basis for detecting meningitis outbreaks.
T Arian-Mehr, M Karami,
Volume 17, Issue 4 (3-2022)
Abstract
Background and Objectives: Timely dection of influenza outbreaks is very important for a better reponse to outbreaks. The aim of this study was to assess the moving epidemic method for determinating influenza outbreak threshold levels in Iran.
Methods: The moving epidemic method was applied to the WHO Flunet website data from January 2010 to December 2017 with the aim of determining outbreak alert thresholds. Therefore, the performance of the moving epidemic method in identifying the onset of the outbreak over eight periods was reported using sensitivity and specificity indices.
Results: A total of 69169 influenza-like illnesses were recorded in the Fluent website during the study period. The smallest number of influenza-like illnesses for the epidemic was 187 cases in the third period (2011-2012) and the maximum number was 1086 cases in the seventh period (2016-2015). The earliest epidemic occurred during the third and eighth periods of the 48th week, approximately in mid-February. The minimum duration of the epidemic was 8 weeks and the maximum was 13 weeks. The overall sensitivity and specificity of the moving epidemic method were 55% and 96%, respectively.
Conclusion: The moving epidemic method could be used as a complementary method to detection of influenza outbreks. It is recommended to apply the moving epidemic method on influenza and similar communicable diseses.
Aliakbar Haghdoost, Alireza Alikhani, Mostafa Hosseini Golkar, Reza Dehnavieh, Samira Seifi,
Volume 18, Issue 2 (9-2022)
Abstract
Background and Objectives: The COVID-19 epidemic and its subsequent effects have become a significant global challenge. In addition to being affected by this crisis, Iran is also facing many other problems, including sanctions and economic problems. So, there is a concern that it will suffer more severe consequences.
Methods: Scenario planning is one of the ways to recognize future changes and environmental uncertainties. This study used the so-called global business network (GBN) method, also known as the scenario matrix method. This method is based on two key uncertainties and six steps have been taken to examine variables related to health and socio-economic factors and use the opinions of relevant experts.
Results: To be expected, Iran's health system will be able to manage the epidemic in the face of various conditions with severity and weakness, and only in the pessimistic scenario or in Worst-case scenario with the default assumption of the continuation of sanctions and the spread of the epidemic. It leads to global restrictions, loss of foreign exchange reserves, loss of performance or collapse of the health system, increasing the number of deaths and diminishing the quality of life.
Conclusion: Regarding the COVID-19 epidemic and the existing background factors, scenarios of Iran’s health and economic conditions were narrated. Given the ability of the scenarios to understand the complexity and help in decision-making, it is considered a useful tool for policy makers to have a broader, comprehensive and reasonable look to achieve a correct consensus. This situation leads to the preservation and continuation of society health and conventional economic decisions.
Kiumarss Nasseri,
Volume 20, Issue 1 (6-2024)
Abstract
Background and Objectives: Years of life lost (YLL) or “wasted life” is a measure based on early and untimely death based on the expectation of life at the time of birth. The objective of this study is to measure the YLL during the COVID-19 epidemic in Iran and compare it with a similar antecedent period by age, sex, and province.
Methods: Daily reports of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education on COVID-19 cases and attributed death in the country; Weekly statistics of death and birth, by age, sex, and province reported by the National Organization for Civil Registration; and population data from the Statistical Center of Iran were used in this study.
Results: During the COVID-19 (Corona) epidemic a 27 percent increase in crude death rate was observed compared to similar period before epidemic. During the epidemic period, 319,136 extra deaths was recorded of which 45% was registered as COVID-19 death by Ministry of Health and Medical Education. During this period, a total of 4,897,995 years of life were prematurely lost.
Conclusion: Although this study lacks some detailed analysis due to the limitation of the available data and, it provides a clear picture of the health and demographic impacts of this epidemic in Iran and we can use Information presented in this report in planning and advance preparation for control and management of similar significant epidemics in the future.
