Showing 10 results for Estimation
F Mohammadzadeh, S Faghihzadeh, Ar Baghestani, M Asadi Lari , Mr Vaez Mahdavi, J Arab Kheradmand , Aa Noorbala, Mm Golmakani, Aa Haeri Mahrizi , R Kordi,
Volume 9, Issue 1 (5-2013)
Abstract
Background & Objectives: Chronic pain is one of main public and individual health problems and its epidemiological understanding needs reliable estimates of prevalence. The aim of this study was to investigate the epidemiology of chronic pain in all 368 neighborhoods of Tehran using small area estimation method.
Methods: The pain section from the second round of Urban HEART data from a selected individual of 23457 households in Tehran using a multistage randomized cluster sampling in 2011, were analyzed. In order to obtain reliable estimates for chronic pain prevalence at neighborhood level, a generalized linear mixed model and hierarchical Bayesian approach were used and the reliability of the estimates were evaluated.
Results: The average of estimated prevalence of chronic pain in neighborhoods of Tehran was 25.5% and a large heterogeneity was observed in its prevalence in neighborhoods of Tehran. Prevalence of chronic pain was significantly higher in married housewives, retirees and pensioners and was significantly associated with age, educational status, depression and anxiety (P<0.05). The reliability of Bayesian method was confirmed by evaluation methods in this analysis.
Conclusion: These results demonstrate prevailing amount of chronic pain at neighborhood-level in Tehran, which warrants careful attention to prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation by health care professionals.
S Daneshi, Aa Haghdoost, Mr Baneshi, F Zolala,
Volume 10, Issue 3 (12-2014)
Abstract
Background & Objectives: After an earthquake, casualty information is needed for planning and providing health care. However, developing countries do not have an efficient health information system even in normal conditions. In these countries, health information systems become worse in critical conditions. The aim of this study was to estimate the number of mortalities, limb amputations, and spinal cord injuries after the Bam earthquake.
Methods: In this cross sectional study, the network scale up method was used to estimate the number of casualties. We selected 80 residents of Bam and asked them whether they knew any one with spinal cord injury or limb amputation in three houses on the right and three houses on the left.
Results: The total estimated number of deaths was 54,041 in the earthquake. The number of people with spinal cord injury and limb amputation was 622 and 519, respectively.
Conclusion: For tertiary prevention measures and better resource allocation, an accurate health information system is needed. In the absence of such a system, there are limitations in using direct methods. It sounds that the network scale up method is an appropriate method for estimating such casualties.
M Khodadost, P Yavari, Ss Hashemi Nazari , M Babaei, A Abadi, F Sarvi,
Volume 10, Issue 4 (3-2015)
Abstract
Background and Objectives : Awareness of the cancer incidence is essential for cancer prevention and control programs. Capture-recapture methods have been recommended for reducing bias and increasing the accuracy of cancer incidence estimation. This study aimed to estimate the incidence of gastric cancer by the capture-recapture method based on Ardabil population-based cancer registry data.
Methods: All new cases of gastric cancer reported by three sources, i.e. pathology reports, death certificates, and medical records, reported to Ardabil population-based cancer registry between 2006 and 2008 were enrolled in the study. The duplicate cases based on the similarity of the first name, surname, and father's name were identified among sources. The estimated incidence was calculated by the log-linear method using the Stata 12 software.
Results : A total 857 new cases of gastric cancer were reported from three sources. After removing duplicates, the reported incidence rate was 35.3 and 32.5 per 100,000 population for the years 2006 and 2008, respectively. The estimated incidence rate calculated by the log-linear method for these years was 96.2 and 90.4 per 100,000 population, respectively.
Conclusion: The results showed that none of the sources of pathology reports, death certificates, and medical records, individually or collectively, fully covered the incidence of gastric cancer. We can obtain more accurate estimates of the incidence rate using the capture-recapture method.
M Khodadost, P Yavari, M Babaei, F Sarvi, Ss Hashemi Nazari ,
Volume 11, Issue 3 (11-2015)
Abstract
Background and Objectives: completeness of registration is used as one of the measures of the quality of a cancer registry, which is the degree to which reportable incident cases of cancer in the population of interest is actually recorded in the registry.
Methods: After removing the duplicates, a total of 471 new cases of esophagus cancer reported by three sources of pathology reports, medical records, and death certificates to Ardabil Province Cancer Registry Center in 2006 and 2008 were enrolled in the study. The incidence rate was estimated based on the capture-recapture method and the use of the log-linear models. BIC, G2 and Akaike statistics were used to select the best-fit model.
Results: In this study, a model with linkage between pathology reports and medical records and a model with death certificates alone, independent of the previous two sources, was the best fitted model. The estimated total completeness of esophagus cancer in 2006 and 2008 was 36% .The source that had the most completeness for esophagus cancers was pathology reports with 21.17%. The estimated incidence rate calculated by the log-linear method for the years 2006 and 2008 was 49.71 and 53.87 per 100,000 population, respectively.
Conclusion: Based on the obtained results, it can be concluded that the low degree of completeness in Ardabil Province requires some changes in data abstracting and case finding such as the use of personal national code and electronic health records to create a more accurate cancer registry.
Aa Haghdoost, H Hashemi, S Noori Hekmat , M Haji Aghajani , Gh Janbabaee, A Maher, Am Javadi, S Emadi, H Haghighi, Mr Rajabalipour, R Dehnavieh, M Ferdosi, Hr Rashidinejad, F Moeen Samadani , R Rahimisadegh,
Volume 13, Issue 0 (3-2018)
Abstract
Background and Objectives:Among health sector resources, hospital beds are the primary unit of calculation for the capacity of the health service and vital capacity in patient care. Lack of appropriate distribution in different parts of the country leads to transfer of patients and irreparable problems. The aim of this study was to provide accurate information on the number and distribution of hospital beds in the country in 2016 and to estimate the number of beds required by 2026.
Methods:This descriptive-analytic study was conducted in 2016. The population of the study comprised 439 counties covered by 46 medical universities of the country. In this study, the data of 2016 were used and information about the number and ownership of beds and the size of hospitals were obtained from the treatment deputies of medical universities.
Results:The number of active beds in the country was 117580 in 2016, and it is estimated that in order to meet the needs of the community, this number should reach 194471 beds by 2026. There were 1.47 beds for 1,000 people in 2016, which will increase to 2.9 in 2026 by implementing the NEDA project. The coefficient of variation in 2016 was 36%, which will reach 19% by 2026 according to estimates in the Iran's roadmap project.
Conclusion:The distribution of beds was differed in different regions of the country and there are not enough hospital beds in some areas. If the Iran roadmap is implemented, 2026 beds will be distributed more evenly across the country.
S Noori Hekmat, H Hashemi, Aa Haghdoost, M Haji Aghajani , Gh Janbabaee, A Maher, A Javadi, R Rahimisadegh, S Emadi, Mr Rajabalipour, R Dehnavieh, H Haghighi,
Volume 13, Issue 0 (3-2018)
Abstract
Background and Objectives: The distribution of specialists is important in two ways: geographical and specialty. In this study, we provided a description of the distribution of specialists in Iran in 2016 and its estimates in 2026.
Methods: This descriptive-analytical study was conducted in 2016 to estimate the number of specialists in 2026. Data were gathered through a census of specialists working in each of 439 cities in the country, including those in public and private sectors. Coefficient of variation and the number of specialists in 100000 populations were applied as distribution measures.
Results: In the year 2016, there were 46 specialists per 100,000 populations, and it is estimated that considering the full-time equivalent index of 1.2, 63 specialists per 100,000 populations will be required in the year 2026. The highest and lowest ratio of specialists per population in the year 2016 was reported in Tehran (89 per 100,000 populations) and Jiroft (10 per 100,000 populations), respectively. The gynecologist group and geriatric specialists group were the largest (4747 specialists) and smallest group (4 specialists), respectively.
Conclusion: There was a considerable disparity between different regions of the country in terms of access to specialists. Furthermore, the ratio of specialist per population in different specialty groups varied from one province to another. Upon implementation of the Iran Roadmap, according to 2026 estimates, this dispersion will be reduced to some extent; however, part of the dispersion related to the regionalisation pilicy.
A Alipour, Sa Ghadiri, L Khazaei,
Volume 14, Issue 2 (9-2018)
Abstract
Background and Objectives: The cause of death in children under one year can be an important tool for designing prevention strategies and reducing the mortality rate. The aim of this study was to estimate the number of deaths in children under one year using the Mr. Murray’s estimation index in Mazandaran Province, and to compare this estimation with reported cases of civil registration organization.
Methods: All deaths of children under one year between 2011 to 2014 registered in hospitals across Mazandaran Province were included in this study. The cause of death as coded in the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) was converted to Murray classification. The coefficients in each of the Murray levels were used to estimate actual death cases. We compared this estimation with the number of deaths that is reported annually by civil registration organization.
Results: Seven hundred and sixty four deaths occurred in this period. The leading causes of death in children under one year were conditions of the perinatal period, congenital anomalies and chromosomal disorders, respiratory diseases, and diseases of the cardiovascular system. The Murray method estimated 1711 deaths for the entire Province.
Conclusion: the Murray method predicted that from 2011 to 2014, 390-445 children under one year died in Mazandaran Province annually. There is a controversy between the estimates obtained in this study and the number of deaths reported by the civil registration organization, which may indicate a defect in a complete registration of deaths by this organization.
Sahar Najafizadeh, Seyed Vahid Ahmadi Tabatabaei, Fatemeh Dehnavieh Tijang, Somayeh Noori Hekmat,
Volume 19, Issue 1 (6-2023)
Abstract
Background and Objectives: Human resources play a crucial role in delivering optimal healthcare services to the population. Expanding primary healthcare coverage requires a heightened focus on the healthcare workforce due to their pivotal role in service delivery. This study aims to evaluate the current workload and staffing requirements for primary health workers and midwives in Kerman, Iran, employing the Workload Indicators of Staffing Need (WISN) methodology.
Methods: A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted in four selected health centers in Kerman, Iran, to estimate staffing requirements across two categories. A total of 118 activities for primary health workers and 89 activities for midwives were identified through the collaboration of expert panels and a comprehensive review of the Iran’s integrated health system. Subsequently, all activities were meticulously timed in each of the four health centers using stopwatches, and WISN ratios and proportions were calculated using Microsoft Excel 2010.
Results: The WISN calculations revealed a surplus in the number of primary health workers in three of the centers: B, C, and D. However, in center A, the workforce in this category is deemed sufficient. Conversely, a deficiency of midwives was noted in two centers, A and B, with WISN ratios of 0.67 and 0.50, respectively, while center C demonstrated an excess of the workforce with a WISN ratio of 2.00. Notably, an average of 50% of the staff workload in both categories comprises supportive and additional activities.
Conclusion: Interestingly, despite 75% of the cases indicating an excess or sufficiency of employees, staff members continue to grapple with high work pressures. This anomaly appears to be linked to the substantial volume of support and additional activities. Furthermore, the intense workload during specific days and hours translates into a pervasive sense of pressure throughout the week. As a potential remedy, introducing a queuing system into the primary healthcare sector could alleviate this issue.
Shoboo Rahmati, Reza Goujani, Zahra Abdolahinia, Naser Nasiri, Sakineh Narouee, Amir Hossein Nekouei, Hamid Sharifi, Ali Akbar Haghdoost,
Volume 19, Issue 3 (12-2023)
Abstract
Background and Objectives: The influential role of epidemiologists in improving health outcomes and conducting pertinent research becomes apparent when they are strategically positioned and available in sufficient numbers within a nation. This study aims to identify potential job positions in epidemiology within both governmental and non-governmental sectors while estimating the necessary workforce of epidemiologists in the country until 2027.
Materials and Methods: The present study was conducted as a combination in two quantitative and qualitative parts. In the qualitative part, interviews were conducted with experts, policy makers, graduates and students of this field in the field of job opportunities. In the quantitative part, the number of epidemiologists needed was estimated using modeling and parameters obtained from the review of the literature and the opinions of experts in this field. In this study, the current and near future needs up to 1406 have been considered.
Results: Based on the interviewes, job opportunities for epidemiologists in the country encompass diverse domains, including problem management and analysis, conducting applied research, data analysis, dashboard development, teaching, training, and future-oriented work (forecasting). Acounting for lost job opportunities, the estimated number of epidemiologists required in the country until 2027 is 1122 individuals, that most of them contribute to the country's health system if job opportunities are created. The highest demand for epidemiologists was identidied in units of the Ministry of Health, medical universities, research centers, and hospitals.
Conclusion: Estimating the number of epidemiologists needed using modeling in the country and paying attention to the current number of graduates, reveals that the growth of this field and the increase in graduates can only occur if job opportunities are clearly defined, created, and implemented across proposed job levels.
Maryam Zamanian, Rahmatollah Moradzadeh,
Volume 20, Issue 1 (6-2024)
Abstract
Background and Objectives: Indirect methods for estimating hidden populations are essential. The present study aimed to assess the prevalence of cigarette and waterpipe consumption in the Arak metropolis, Iran, directly and indirectly through network scale-up.
Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted on 1,604 participants. Daily and weekly cigarette and waterpipe consumption data were collected to measure the prevalence directly. The indirect network scale-up method was used to estimate the size of cigarette and hookah smokers. A confidence interval of 95% was considered.
Results: About 49.9% of the participants were men. The average age of men was 39.8 and women 38.7 years. In the direct method, the prevalence of smoking at least one cigarette per day during the last year in women and men was 1.8% (1.0-3.0) and 38.3% (34.9-41.9), respectively. The prevalence of using waterpipe at least once a day during the last year was as much as 0.9% (0.03-1.8) and 4.1% (2.8-5.7) for women and men. In the indirect method of network scale-up during the last year, the prevalence of continuous smoking was 4.8% (4.3-5.0) in women and 19.7% (19.6-19.9) in men. The prevalence of waterpipe in women was calculated at 7.8% (7.8-8.0) and 9.8% (9.7-9.9) in men.
Conclusion: Based on the results, the prevalence of waterpipe and cigarette smoking was high in the Arak, especially among young people. It is suggested to the health system policymakers to pay attention to measures related to reducing the prevalence of these two risk factors, especially among young people, in their health plans.
