Iranian Journal of

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Zoonoses are disease and/or infection naturally transmissible between vertebrate animals and humans. Emerging zoonoses are defined by the WHO/FAO/OIE joint consultation on emerging zoonotic disease held in Geneva, 3-5 may 2004 as "diseases which are newly recognized or newly evolved or that have occurred previously but show an increase in incidence or expansion in geographical, host or vector range". The number of emerging zoonoses has increased dramatically over the last few decades, with potentially serious human and economic impact worldwide. Many factors are behind the emergence of these zoonotic diseases. Intensive animal husbandry and changes in the production and distribution of food and other commodities, climatic and environmental changes, rapid transportation of human and animals, changes in life style and increased animal contacts are some of the factors that could introduce a new disease in a particular area. Viral infectious agents are more prone to mutation and sudden or gradual change and expansion to new geographical areas or hosts. In this article we briefly discuss some of the zoonotic diseases which may have potential health effects in Iran, such as avian influenza, West Nile viruses, Rift Valley fever, Congo-Crimean hemorrhagic fever, Lassa fever, Sars, and Ebola Marburg hemorrhagic disease.

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Background & Objectives: There is little doubt about the importance of accurate statistics and reliable information in the promoting community health and optimizing health care. Therefore, the existence of a correct, accurate and up to date database is an absolute necessity. Accurate identification of the cause in death certificates can make an invaluable contribution to the development of such a database. The purpose of this research was to assess the current defects and shortcomings in death certificates and to evaluate the degree of agreement between the diagnoses recorded in hospital files those figuring on death certificates.
Methods: This was an analytic cross-sectional study. In this survey of 659 medical records of dead patients in Loghman Hospital, during 2005, 290 medical records were selected using a systematic sampling method. The selection of these records were based on record numbers in the archives and involved the extraction of the following data: the physician's field of specialty, the patient's identity, code for the main diagnosis, the code for the external cause on the admission form, and the code for the cause of death on the death (as defined in ICD-10) was recorded. The agreement between primary and final diagnoses and also the agreement between final diagnosis and the cause of death were assessed in relation with the physician's specialty using Fisher's Exact Test. Overall agreement between different diagnoses was measured using the kappa statistic.
Results: The degree of agreement between primary and final diagnosis was very good (k = 0.83) and agreement between final diagnosis and cause of death was excellent (k = 0.95). Fisher's exact test showed that agreement between primary and final diagnoses and between final diagnoses and cause of death doesn't depend on the physician's specialty (in both cases p>0.01). In 62% percent of the cases death had occurred without interference from an external cause. Among the 38% in which there was an external cause, 21% involved poisoning with suicidal intent, 12% were due to accidental poisoning, 4% were motor accidents, and 1% were due to other reasons.
Conclusions: There was a high degree of agreement between different diagnoses in some specialties, while didn't observe such agreement in other specialties. Since accurate diagnosis helps in identifying the cause of death and death information is an important indicator of health at community level, we recommend that physicians pay greater attention to accurate recording of the cause of death. This will make it possible to draw meaningful comparisons between the causes of death in Iran and those in other countries.

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Background & Objectives: The summer of 2005 witnessed an outbreak of cholera in Iran due to V. cholera, Inaba serotype. During the outbreak, there were 16 registered cases in Markazi Province. The aim of this study was to determine the risk factors for cholera outbreak in this part of the country.
Methods: This was a case-control study in which cases were matched to controls on age and sex. All of the reported cases were compared with controls from the same neighborhood, with 2 controls selected for each case. We used paired odds ratios and conditional logistic regression to show the effect of each putative risk factor, and p values of < 0.05 were considered as statistically significant. Results: Multivariate results from 16 cases and 32 controls showed significant associations between the cholera outbreak and the following set of factors: eating raw vegetable (OR=9, 95%CI: 2.25-35.98), proper warming of refrigerated food (OR=0.12, 95%CI: 0.015-1.022), inadequate washing of fruits and vegetables (OR=4.29, 95% CI: 0.88-21.06) , and eating non-pasteurized ice creams (OR=4.96, 95%CI: 0.99-24.83).
Conclusions: Although the number of reported cases was small in Markazi Province, the results show that education in personal hygiene is important in the prevention of a cholera outbreak.

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Background & Objective: Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) summarizes the fatal and nonfatal outcomes of diseases and injuries in one number and gives a quantitative assessment of the health of a population. Estimating the burden of diseases and injuries in Iran in terms of DALY both nationwide and in 6 provinces.
Methods: We used slightly modified versions of the methods developed by the World Health Organization for estimating the burden of premature mortality, disability, and the DALY.
Results: The DALY rate per 100,000 was 21572 and 62% of this was life lost due to premature mortality the remaining 38% was due to disability from diseases and injuries. Fifty-eight percent of the total DALYs had been lost due to non-communicable diseases, 28% due to external causes (injuries), and 14% due to communicable, maternal/ perinatal and nutritional illnesses. The group of diseases and injuries with the highest burden in males waz intentional and unintentional injuries (2.789 million DALYs), while in the female population this position was held by mental disorders with 1.191 million DALYs. The single most important cause of burden was traffic accidents in males and ischemic heart disease in females. Disease burden showed considerable variability between different provinces.
Conclusion: The profile of health and disease in Iran has generally shifted from the predominance of communicable, maternal/perinatal, and nutritional illnesses towards predominance of non-communicable diseases and injuries at the national level. These figures on disease burden at population level are the most objective evidence that can be used in policy making and management of health programs, health research, and resource development within the health sector.

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Background and Objectives: Incidence of neurocognitive and psychologic disorders in elderly seems to become high There are numerous factors affecting neurocognitive functions like vascular factors, Vitamin B12 and folate and homocysteine levels. The aim of this study was to assess the relation between neurocognitive- psychologic markers and homocystein (Hcy), V.B12 (Cobalamin) and folate in serum.
Methods: Two hundred eighty elderly people admitted to Emam Reza Teaching Hospital in Mashahd, Iran. neurocognitive-psychologic disorders was diagnosed by a trained physician. Serum cobalamin, folate and homocystein measured by RIAand ELIZA methods, respectively.
Results: Based on Hcy>15 µmol/l level, cut off point <330 pg/ml for serum cobalamin and <6.5 ng/ml for folate deficiency defined as deficiency. The correlation between cobalamin and folate was statistically significant (p=0.000). Hemocystein correlated inversely to cobalamin (p=0.001) and folate (p=0.044). There were no statistical significant between Cobalamin, Folate and Hcv>15µmol/l and neurocognitive & psychologic markers unless Deep Tendon reflex test (P=0.04). All patients with dementia had hyperhemocysteinemia.
Conclusions: Despite the plausible biochemical mechanism, further diagnostic studies, based on clinical, neuropsychological, laboratory features will be necessary to better understand this fascinating biochemical challenge.

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Background & Objectives: Custom-orienting is a critical issue for public health service. Peoples with a variety of developmental health care needs and perspectives are health care clients. Health accessibility through “Primary health care” has been approved and emphasized in Alma Ata in 1978. It is important to have a clear and transparent understanding of clients’ health needs and problems that would enable us to address such needs and prevent the negative consequences that might otherwise ensue. The aim of this study was to understand and gain deeper insight into health service customers’ lived experience of public health accessibility.
Methods: This study has been conducted with a phenomenological approach. Max van Manen six steps method of hermeneutic-phenomenology has been used. Nine health care clients were selected purposefully and interviewed semi-structured.
Results: The results of this experiment revealed the following six themes: to encounter with holistic learning chance, custom-oriented communications, qualified health care service, appropriate time-place health services, equality- orienting, and individual participation.
Conclusion: The participants believed that health accessibility is something more than just to have health services. Therefore, health education and social equality will bring about optimum health services. To develop multi-dimensional learning and to promote individual participation will be useful for more community empowerment.

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Background & Objectives: Increasing in prevalence of juvenile myopia in recent decades in eastern and western countries, especially in urban elementary school children, suggests that changing in early life style may play an important role in development of myopia. Our aim was to determine the relationships between myopia and overweight in elementary school children of Eslamshahr a city near Tehran, Iran Methods: In a case control study, 240 new myopic primary school children (grade 2-4) identified as cases and 240 children without myopia in the same schools enrolled as control group. Anthropometric information was completed from schools’. Other information about pre-entrancing to school was collected by interviewing their parents. Children having a Body mass index BMI>=85th CDC2000 percentile were identified as overweight. Adjusted odds ratio for overweight was estimated after adjusting other potential risk factors.
Results: Of total 53.3% were girls. 23.8% of children in case group and 10.1% of them in control group were categorized in overweight group. After adjusting for other potential risk factors (family history, breast milk intake, near works, mother`s job and financial position) being overweight was independently associated to myopia (OR: 3.10, 95% CI: 1.9-5.03).
Conclusion: It is concluded that overweight in children in preschool age, is independently associated with increased risk of myopia in primary school children. Therefore health promotion programs in order to change of the life style in this group of children should be considered.

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Background & Objectives: Food insecurity has been a global concern. The purpose of the present study was to examine the relationship between household food insecurity and depression in mothers with school children in Ray city.

Methods: A cross-sectional survey of 430 mothers of school children was conducted in 2010 in Ray city. We employed USDA food security questionnaire. The prevalence of depression in mothers was assessed by Beck Depression Inventory (DBI).
Results: Household food insecurity was identified approximately in fifty percent of participants and frequency of depression was 51.4% in mothers. Depression in ‘food secure' group was 34.6%, and in ‘food insecure with hunger' group was 77.8%. There was a positive relationship between depression and food insecurity in mothers having primary school children living in Ray.
Conclusion: The findings of this study revealed that level of food insecurity among mothers seems high. This study highlights the need to integrate programs addressing food insecurity and poor mental health for mothers.

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Background & Objectives: One of the most common anxiety disorders in children is separation anxiety disorder (SAD). The purpose of the present study was to investigate the epidemiology of separation anxiety disorder in Isfahan primary school male student.
Methods: The present study was a descriptive study. The statistical population was all the male students from 7 to 9 years old, studying in second and third grades in primary schools of Isfahan. The sample of study consisted of 1514 male student, who were selected randomly by multi-stage sampling method. The instruments of this study consisted of the Separation Anxiety Disorder Scale, Spence Children's Anxiety Scale and Clinical Interview. Data obtained were analyzed by using descriptive statistics and chi-square and logistic regression.
Results: The findings showed that the rate of separation anxiety disorder in male (7 to 9 year- old student) was %6/93. SAD were more common in 7 years old (7.4%). Children having record of hospitalization, immigration, single-parent households and close relatives of mortality had a higher rate of separation anxiety disorder.
Conclusion: This study shows that separation anxiety disorder among primary school male students is significantly high. Therefore it is important to consider the potential utility of early anxiety prevention/intervention programs, especially for children at this age group.

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Background & Objectives: In recent years, different decision support systems (DSS) have been used to predict and diagnose diseases. The purpose of this paper was to compare some DSSs and to evaluate their accuracy in predicting diabetes. 

Methods: In this research, determination and optimization of the weights of the neural network were undertaken using genetic algorithm and Levenberg-Marquardt (GALM). Traditional and K-Fold Cross Validation were used to verify the models. Finally, the proposed model (i.e. GALM) was compared using logistic regression and genetic algorithm based on area under curve (AUC), and Confusion Matrix.

Results: After evaluating the results, the model based on the GALM algorithm showed better sensitivity and specificity in comparison with models based on the logistic regression (LR) and genetic algorithm (GA). Furthermore, among other models, the proposed model had a high sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value (NPV), positive predictive value (PPV), and a small negative likelihood.

Conclusion: The results showed that the GALM model with a sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, and AUC of 98.7, 90.01, 91.8, 98.3 and 0.979 respectively was an appropriate model for predicting diabetes in comparison with models of GA and LR.

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Background and Objectives: Disorders of height and weight growth are the most important health disorders affecting children younger than two in developing societies. Failure to treat these disorders can lead to the increased mortality and mental, emotional or physical disability. The objective of this study was to investigate the growth trends of children and the factors affecting it.

Methods: This retrospective cohort study was conducted on 2030 children younger than two in Khorramabad, Iran who were selected using stratified and cluster sampling. Based on household records, the weight growth trend was recorded as a four-level variable (decline, stagnation, slowness and desirable) and the the height growth trend was recorded as a three-level variable (stagnation, slowness and desirable); finally, the data were modeled using a longitudinal marginal model and the SAS software version 9.2.

Results: The incidence of at least one decline in the weight growth curve and one stagnation in the height growth curve was 14.2% and 10.4%, respectively. The child’s age and the maternal educational level had a significant effect on the growth trends. However, the sex, parity and the exclusive breastfeeding during the first six months had no significant relationship with the growth trends.

Conclusion: Given the results and the relatively high prevalence of growth disorders among children, it seems that increasing the awareness of low literate women about feeding of the children is the most important approach to manage growth disorders. Additionally, health-care professionals should mostly focus on monitoring the growth of children older than 12 months.

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Background and Objectives: The aim of this study was to analyze the risks of local recurrence, second primary tumor, and metastasis in oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) patients and to present their prognosis after treatment.

Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, 147 patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) who were older than 40 years were included using the data of 1973–2010 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program in the United States. The variables included gender, race, stage, histologic grade, tumor site, treatment modalities, and dates of diagnosis and death. Markov Multistate model was used for analysis.

Results: At a median follow-up of 33 months, local recurrence, second primary tumor, and distant metastasis rates were 34.01%, 85.03%, and 17.01% respectively and 40.13% of the patients died. Patients with cervical lymph nodes were at risk of second primary tumor 1.37 (1.05-2.05) times higher than early stage patients and were 2.33 (1.29-4.18) times more likely to die. After one year, the risk of death for patients with local recurrence or second primary tumor was almost similar but after 5 years, the risk of death was higher for local recurrence than second primary tumor.

Conclusion: Awareness of the next state and its time with respect to the patient’s clinical status can be one of the appropriate methods for timely diagnosis and treatment to reduce the mortality rate of OSCC patients.

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Background and Objectives: Changes in ideals and aspirations of childbearing are important factors in fertility behavior. Nowadays, fertility rate reduction below the replacement level and decreased childbearing ideals are the most common fertility challenges in Iran. So, with the decrease in the fertility rate, it is necessary to be aware of the ideal number of children and its determinants in order to adopt suitable population policies contexts. The main objective of this study was to investigate factors affecting the ideal number of children using Poisson regression model.
Methods: In 2012, 389 ever married women aged 15-49 in Semnan Province were selected using two-phase stratified random sampling method and studied through applying a structured questionnaire. To model the ideal number of children by Poisson regression model, marriage duration has taken as offset and the number of children, job status, education level, marriage type, and resident place were considered as predictors. The model was fitted with SPSS software version 22.
Results: All predictors in this study had significant effects on ideal number of children in Semnan (p-value <0.05). Women’s ideal number of children who had 2 or fewer children, were employed, and had university education with consanguineous and rural  marriage was higher than those who had 3 and more children, were unemployed, and had elementary and secondary education with inter-family and urban marriage.
Conclusion: To model the ideal number of children, since it is discrete and count, a Poisson regression model is more efficient as compared to linear regression model.

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Background and Objectives:In order to determine the workload of health workers(Behvarz), this research was conducted for work measurement and time assessment in rural health centers(health house).
Methods: This cross sectional study was conducted in 30 health centers during a routine working day in Saghez in 2015 using the “stop watch method”. The time and frequency of the processes were recorded in a checklist. We estimated and compared spent, standard, expected and pessimistic time, and also the mean repetition for each process per day and month as the unit of time.
Results: The mean real working time was about 157.5 minutes (33%) per day, which was mostly (35.5 minutes) spent on the affairs of health volunteers. Care for non-communicable diseases was the most frequent task with an average of 2.4 times per day. In a month, family planning was undertaken more than other processes. The time of most activities like mother care, elderly care, care for communicable and non-communicable disease was significantly lower than the expected and pessimistic times (P<0.05).
Conclusion: The time spent by health workers was low and unscheduled, particularly for important activities of primary health care. It seems that it is necessary to revise the models and methods of service provision in health centers. Efficient use of existing personnel, reducing unnecessary activities and adding more service packages according to the health system priority seem to be important requirements in the first level of health system.

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One of the traditional methods used for the analysis of survival data is the Cox regression technique. This method calculates the conditional risk ratio. However, when the aim of the study is to estimate the effect of exposure in the total population level, using these conditional methods is not apposite. Furthermore, the hazard ratio has disadvantages of its own such as being non-collapsible, having the risk of structural selection bias and variability in time. Given the limitations, it is recommended to use the marginal hazard ratio, which estimates the average causal effect of exposure in the total population level.
This study introduces the inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW) as a method of estimating the marginal causal effect. Finally, to illustrate IPTW method, we used Golestan Cohort Study and estimated the marginal causal effect of smoking on time to death due to the upper gastrointestinal cancer (esophageal-gastric).

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Background and Objectives: Delivery is one of the most important services in the health systems, and increasing its effectiveness and efficiency are a health priorities. The aim of this study was to forecast the number of deliveries in order to design plans for using all facilities to provide patients with better services.
Methods: The data used in this study were the number of deliveries per month in Hakim Jorjani Hospital, Gorgan, Iran during the years 2010 to 2016. Due to the over-dispersion of the data and non-compliance with a Poisson distribution, the Poisson hidden Markov model was applied to predict the frequency of monthly deliveries. The model parameters were estimated using the maximum likelihood method and expectation maximization algorithm.
Results: The use of the Akaike criteria revealed the frequency of delivery in different months in the hospital followed a Poisson hidden Markov models with three hidden states, and the mean Poisson distribution in each component was 193.74, 236.05, and 272.61 labors, respectively.
Conclusion: The results of this study showed that government’s encouraging policies have had short-term, limited effects on increasing fertility with minimal effects on the results of the two-year forecast.

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Background and Objectives: Tuberculosis is a chronic bacterial disease and a major cause of morbidity and mortality. It is caused by a Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Awareness of the incidence and number of new cases of the disease is valuable information for revising the implemented programs and development indicators. time series and regression are commonly used models for prediction but these methods require some assumptions. The purpose of this study was to predict new TB cases using the hidden Markov model which does not require many assumption.
 
Methods: The data used in this study was the monthly number of new TB cases during 2006-2016 identified and recorded in Hamedan Province. Rorecasting the number of new TB cases was done using hidden Markov models using the hidden Markov package in the R software.
Results: According to the AIC and BIC criterion, two states had the best fit to the data, i.e. the data of this study were a mixture of two Poisson distributions with average number of event 5.96 and 10.2 respectively. The results also predicted the number of new cases over the next 24 months based on the hidden Markov model would be between 8 and 9 new cases in each month.
Conclusion: The hidden Markov model is the best model for prediction using the Markov chain. This model, in addition to detection of an appropriate model for the available data, can determine the transition probability matrix, which can help physicians predict the future state of the disease and take preventive measures befor reaching advanced stages.

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Background and Objectives: Analysis of ordinal data outcomes could lead to bias estimates and large variance in sparse one. The objective of this study is to compare parameter estimates of an ordinal regression model under maximum likelihood and Bayesian framework with generalized Gibbs sampling. The models were used to analyze ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome data.
 
Methods: This study used the data from 138 patients of a clinical trial phase III to compare the efficacy of intravenous Albumin and Cabergoline in prevention of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome. The original study was done between 2010 to 2011 in Royan institute. We compared maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation with generalized Gibbs sampling for an ordinal regression model based on confidence intervals and standard errors. The model were fit through R 3.3.2 software version.
 
Results: Markov Chain Monte Carlo results reduced the standard errors for estimates and consequently, narrower confidence intervals. Autocorrelations for generalized Gibbs sampler reached to zero in compare to standard Gibbs sampler for shorter time.
 
Conclusion: It seems that confidence intervals of an ordinal regression model are shorter for generalized Gibbs sampler in compare to standard Gibbs and maximum likelihood. It suggests doing more studies to warrant the results.

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Background and Objectives: Social marketing is a method that acts through identifying the needs and demands of the audience and specifying the components of the behavioral market using the results of developmental research. So far, social marketing has not been used to involve the private sector in the tuberculosis (TB) control program. The aim of this study was to design a Public-Private Mix (PPM) program using social marketing.
 
Methods: This qualitative study was conducted using focused group discussions (FGD) with six different groups, including tuberculosis coordinator physicians, specialists from different fields in the private section, and managers of selected private laboratories and hospitals in Karaj in 2013 and the components of the PPM program were determined according to the results of the qualitative study.
 
Results: Most of the participants believed that participation of the private sector in the TB program was associated with significant challenges, including the lack of a well-defined process for communicating with the private sector, lack of a suitable platform, lack of appropriate monitoring tools, private sector’s lack of compliance, private sector’s lack of familiarity with national TB program protocols, lack of appropriate incentive and punitive measures, lack of appropriate feedback to the private sector, and monopoly in laboratories.
 
Conclusion: To run PPM in the TB program, it is necessary to involve laboratories in the program voluntarily. It is also essential to provide an informational and incentive package containing effective and low-volume tutorials; the package should facilitate feedback and promote respect for the private sector.

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Background and Objectives: A great number of tuberculosis (TB) patients present to the private sector to receive care; therefore, integrating TB control programs into private sector activities can enhance the control of TB. The Public-Private Mix (PPM) program is suggested by the World Health Organization to engage the private sector in TB control programs. In this study, a plan designed for PPM was piloted Karaj, Alborz Province, Iran.
 
Methods: In this community trial, pre-intervention assessment covered 18 months prior to the study. The intervention was a PPM package that was integrated into the health system by Karaj County Health Center. Then, three-month post-intervention data were collected. Analysis was performed with the SPSS 16 software using chi-square test.
 
Results: After the intervention, there was an increase of 40.7% in suspected cases of TB per month and an increase of 101.7% in smear positive TB cases diagnosed by Karaj laboratories. The ratio of smear positive cases to all suspected TB patients was 4.57% before and 6.56% after the intervention. The percentage of three sputum sample positive patients was 75.5% and 89.9% before and after the intervention, respectively.
 
Conclusion: The developed PPM program markedly improved the case detection; therefore, it is suggested to fix the potential defects of the program and implement it in all parts of the country.