Afsaneh Khademi Jolgehnejad, Reza Ahmadi Kahnali, Ali Heyrani,
Volume 19, Issue 3 (11-2020)
Abstract
Background: Scenario planning is one of the most crucial future study methods in uncertain and complex situations. Hospital supply chain resilience also requires an understanding of future events due to the complexity of relationships and exposure to unexpected circumstances. The purpose of this study is to formulate scenarios for the future development of hospital supply chain resilience.
Materials & Methods: This research is the second stage of research with a mixed approach, and it is in the category of normative scenarios based on intuitive logic. Participants in this study were purposefully selected from the experts of two hospitals. In the first phase, the impact-uncertainty questionnaire and the effect-uncertainty diagram were used to determine the critical uncertainties. After forming the scenario team, based on the impact diagram and the scenario matrix, The cause and effect relationships of the variables were determined in the second phase.
Results: Drivers of Hospital supply chain resilience were clustered into 14 main categories, and the results of the impact-uncertainty diagram showed that "people's culture" and "accident nature" play a more significant role in scenario development as critical uncertainties. Four scenarios were developed based on the opinion of experts for these two drivers.
Conclusion: four scenarios, "compatible," "turbulent," "broken," and "combative," were developed based on the critical drivers in supply chain hospital resilience. Use the inspirational feature of these scenarios can help managers in health and crisis management be more prepared to face the crisis. Scenarios based on intuitive logic can be used for futures studies in other areas of the health system.
