Background and Aim: One of the pillars of scientific authority is the creation of a process for accessing information, referencing, and applying knowledge. The presence of strong information centers is considered a requirement for supporting this authority. Given the uncertainties of the future, there are various scenarios for accessing information in Iran, each of which requires appropriate measures for the effective application of knowledge. This research aims to understand the needs and requirements of the country’s information sector to achieve scientific authority.
Materials and Methods: Using futures studies methodologies and a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods, the indicators of information centers were first identified. Then, based on expert opinions, measures to achieve scientific authority were determined. The expert panel was purposefully selected from specialists with at least 10 years of experience in relevant fields. Validation of the scenarios and consensus-building were accomplished using an expert panel and focus group.
Results: A conceptual model was identified, comprising five components and 26 factors, which were prioritized based on 10 key drivers. Two critical uncertainties-access and information management, as well as the completion of the information cycle, led to the development of three scenarios: traditional, monopolistic, and democratic. Furthermore, indicators related to scientific authority were estimated based on expert opinions for a ten-year horizon within each scenario. The findings indicated that there was less differentiation among scenarios in the indicators of knowledge exchange and transfer, whereas greater differentiation was observed in the indicators of translation, outsourcing, and knowledge utilization. This highlights the necessity of directing effectiveness toward utility. These changes in the layers of processes and value creation in scientific authority could be traced.
Conclusion: According to the experts’ assessment of the indicators, in the knowledge exploitation stage of the traditional and exclusive scenarios, access to information in the components of knowledge exchange and transfer will not be adequately established. Therefore, to implement knowledge application, the presence of processes for support, promote, and facilitate scientific interaction will play a significant role in establishing scientific authority. Although the dominance of the view of knowledge as power and information as a source of power is expected to continue in the medium term, achieving scientific authority requires a transition to perspectives that offer greater support and provide a better platform for the formation of the information cycle and its broader distribution.
