Mehdi Basakha, Kazem Yavari , Hosein Sadeghi, Alireza Naseri ,
Volume 9, Issue 2 (7-2015)
Abstract
Background and Aim: The recently emerged symptoms of population aging
have raised serious concerns in some developed countries. A recent report by the
United Nations (UN) indicates that aging is more rapidly growing and is even more
serious in developing countries than it is in certain other countries. Therefore, this
study is aimed to determine the impression of aging on non-oil economic growth.
Materials and Methods: A simple economic growth model was built which
would take demographic variables into account. Then, using the country's data for
the years 1967-2011, the researchers tried to estimate autoregressive distributed
lags (ADL). The short- and long-term models, and error correction model were
estimated using Microfit 4.0 software.
Results: The findings show that physical capital, human capital and trade
openness have a significant positive effect on per capita income, both in the long
and in the short run. Similarly, the regression analysis indicates that “Ageing
Index” may have a significant effect on economic growth in Iran’s non-oil sector.
Conclusion: Due to the young makeup of Iran's population, the signs of aging
economy have not raised sensitiveness but predictions indicate that the aging
process in Iran will be intensified in the coming decades and its negative effects
will emerge in near future. Therefore, due to the long-term effects of aging on
economic growth, working structure and retiredness reform policies, it is vital to
stabilize population growth at an optimal rate, and more importantly, pay attention
to capital storage.
Mojtaba Ghiasi, Ahmad Sarlak, Hadi Ghafari,
Volume 12, Issue 4 (11-2018)
Abstract
Background and Aim: In the past studies, few researchers have addressed the simultaneous effects of human capital in health and education indicators on the economic growth of the country, and especially, provinces of the country. Therefore, the current study examined the simultaneous effects of human capital in health and education indicators on the economic growth in Iran s’ Provinces
Materials and Methods: This was an applied, analytical, descriptive study, and the research community consisted of the country's provinces. The data were collected through documentary-library research and from the databases of Iran Office for National Statistics, and Central Bank; afterwards, they were analyzed via unit-root and chow tests, using Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and Eviews 9.
Results: The results showed that each percent of rise in family health expenditure, fertility rate, and life expectancy increased the provincial economic growth by 0.033%, 0.71%, and 1.83% respectively. In addition, 1% rise in mortality rate decreased the provincial economic growth by 0.43%. Educational expenditure influenced the provincial economic growth by a coefficient of 0.08, and credit capital asset acquisition, by a coefficient of 0.048.
Conclusion: Human capital is considered a long-term investment in health and education sectors which should be an important priority on the agenda of provincial policymakers.
