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Futures Studies in Health in Iran: A Scoping Review
Alireza Hajizadeh, Reza Hafezi, Mrs Maryam Tajvar,
Volume 17, Issue 5 (12-2023)
Abstract
Background and Aim: Futures studies are constantly evolving and help organizations and individuals for better identification of future events, opportunities, and threats. In the field of health, futures studies are also applied for better prediction of health issues in future, control of unpleasant condition and preparing for pleasant future in health system. The purpose of this study is to conduct a scoping review of the futures studies accomplished in the field of health in Iran, 
Materials and Methods: This study is a scoping review, conducted based on the Arksey and O’Malley framework with 6 steps including research question identification, related study identification, study selection / screening, data segmentation, summarizing and reporting results and providing guidance and recommendations n. National and international databases and search engines including PubMed, Web Of Science (WOS), Scopus, ProQuest, SID, Magiran, IranDoc and Google Scholar were searched using related keywords. After removing duplicate articles, the remaining articles were screened according to inclusion and exclusion criteria. The results of the selected articles were finally categorized, summarized and reported based on the mentioned steps.
Results: Among of 6691 articles identified, 30 articles reached the final synthesis stage. The articles were classified into forecasting, foresighting, and mixed categories, with the scenario writing method being the most widely used and applied in 20 studies. Also, studies were classified in scope of nature based on quantitative or qualitative and time horizon. Types of futures studies methods in Iran, in the fields of public health, medicine, science and technology, financing, prescription, health tourism, diet, human resources, aging, Covid-19 epidemic, health policy, hospital and macro level of health system were used.
Conclusion: The use of futures studies methods in a targeted manner and on the issues of Iran’s health system can play an effective role in knowing the future for more informed decision-making and planning in order to build a desirable future. The results of this review showed that scattered studies have been conducted with futures studies methods in the field of health, among which the scenario writing method has received more attention.

Scientific Authority and Medical Research Utilization in Various Scenarios of Access to Information in Iran
Najmeh Nazeri, Ali Shabani, Alireza Noruzi, Mostafa Hossini Golkar,
Volume 18, Issue 6 (2-2025)
Abstract
Background and Aim: One of the pillars of scientific authority is the creation of a process for accessing information, referencing, and applying knowledge. The presence of strong information centers is considered a requirement for supporting this authority. Given the uncertainties of the future, there are various scenarios for accessing information in Iran, each of which requires appropriate measures for the effective application of knowledge. This research aims to understand the needs and requirements of the country’s information sector to achieve scientific authority.
Materials and Methods: Using futures studies methodologies and a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods, the indicators of information centers were first identified. Then, based on expert opinions, measures to achieve scientific authority were determined. The expert panel was purposefully selected from specialists with at least 10 years of experience in relevant fields. Validation of the scenarios and consensus-building were accomplished using an expert panel and focus group.
Results: A conceptual model was identified, comprising five components and 26 factors, which were prioritized based on 10 key drivers. Two critical uncertainties-access and information management, as well as the completion of the information cycle, led to the development of three scenarios: traditional, monopolistic, and democratic. Furthermore, indicators related to scientific authority were estimated based on expert opinions for a ten-year horizon within each scenario. The findings indicated that there was less differentiation among scenarios in the indicators of knowledge exchange and transfer, whereas greater differentiation was observed in the indicators of translation, outsourcing, and knowledge utilization. This highlights the necessity of directing effectiveness toward utility. These changes in the layers of processes and value creation in scientific authority could be traced.
Conclusion: According to the experts’ assessment of the indicators, in the knowledge exploitation stage of the traditional and exclusive scenarios, access to information in the components of knowledge exchange and transfer will not be adequately established. Therefore, to implement knowledge application, the presence of processes for support, promote, and facilitate scientific interaction will play a significant role in establishing scientific authority. Although the dominance of the view of knowledge as power and information as a source of power is expected to continue in the medium term, achieving scientific authority requires a transition to perspectives that offer greater support and provide a better platform for the formation of the information cycle and its broader distribution.

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