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Assessing the Distribution of Health Care Services: Evidence from Guilan Province in Year 2011 and 2013
Pardis Rahmatpour, Sara Emamgholipour, Mohammad Taghi Moghadamnia , Maryam Tavakkoli ,
Volume 11, Issue 3 (9-2017)
Abstract
Background and Aim: Health and equal access to quality care regardless of age, gender, race and location is health systems' goal in all countries. This study aimed to determine inequality in healthcare services distribution and development level of cities in Guilan province.
Materials and Methods: This descriptive, cross-sectional study assessed the distribution state of 13 healthcare indicators in all cities of Guilan (n=16) in year 2011 and 2013. In order to collect data, the database of Statistical Center of Iran (SCI) was used as reference. The taxonomy technique was employed to determine the degree of development of different cities. In addition, indicators were weighed by Shannon’s entropy. Finally, TOPSIS was used to rank the cities in term of access to health sector resources.
Results: Taxonomy technique in 2 years showed that Rudbar, Rudsar and Lahidjan were of most developed cities and Talesh, Rezvanshahr and Amlash were the most under-developed cities respectively. After weighting indicators and according to Shannon entropy, the number of specialists and paramedics gained the most and the least weight, respectively.
Conclusion: Due to the inequality in distribution of health resources in Guilan province, attention to underdeveloped cities in this province should be a priority. To achieve equitable health resources in Guilan, it is recommended that the plannings be based on state of development of cities.

Forecasting of Physicians Supply and Demand in Medical Sciences Universities of Iran
Mahdi Shahraki, Simin Ghaderi,
Volume 14, Issue 4 (10-2020)
Abstract
Background & Aim: Physicians as human capital and resources are one of the main components of health production. The imbalance of physician supply and demand affects the health and economics. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate and forecast the supply and demand of physician working in Iranian medical universities.
Materials and Methods: This a descriptive-analytical and applied study was conducted at national level for Iran during 1991-2017. The statistical population was physicians working in Iranian medical universities. ARIMA method was used to estimate and forecast physician supply and Vector Error Correction Models was used for physician demand. The data is annual time series that was extracted from the statistical yearbooks of the Statistical Center of Iran and the World Bank database. Eviews 10 software was used to estimate the models.
Results: The results showed that physician demand in Iran was affected by Gross Domestic Product, age structure and hospital beds, and according to the forecast of supply and demand of physicians, we will be faced to the physician shortage in the years 2018-2030.
Conclusion: In the coming years, Iran is facing with physician shortage. Therefore, it is recommended to adopt policies to increase physician capacity in medical universities and to increase strong incentives to retain physicians and prevent their migration.

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