Mahmoud Akbarian , Khadijeh Paydar, Sharareh R Ostam Niakan Kalhori , Abbas Sheikhtaheri ,
Volume 73, Issue 4 (July 2015)
Abstract
Background: Pregnancy in women with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is still introduced as a major challenge. Consulting before pregnancy in these patients is essential in order to estimating the risk of undesirable maternal and fetal outcomes by using appropriate information. The purpose of this study was to develop an artificial neural network for prediction of pregnancy outcomes including spontaneous abortion and live birth in SLE.
Methods: In a retrospective study, forty-five variables were identified as effective factors for prediction of pregnancy outcomes in systemic lupus erythematosus. Data of 104 pregnancies in women with systemic lupus erythematosus in Shariati Hospital and 45 pregnancies in a private specialized center in Tehran from 1982 to 2014 in August and September, 2014 were collected and analyzed. For feature selection, information of the 149 pregnancies was analyzed with a binary logistic regression model in SPSS software, version 20 (SPSS, Inc., Chicago, IL, USA). These selected variables were used for inputs of neural networks in MATLAB software, version R2013b (MathWorks Inc., Natick, MA, USA). A Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) network with scaled conjugate gradient (trainscg) back propagation learning algorithm has been designed and evaluated for this purpose. We used confusion matrix for evaluation. The accuracy, sensitivity and specificity were calculated from the confusion matrix.
Results: Twelve features with P<0.05 and four features with P<0.1 were identified by using binary logistic regression as effective features. These sixteen features were used as input variables in artificial neural networks. The accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the test data for the MLP network were 90.9%, 80.0%, and 94.1% respectively and for the total data were 97.3%, 93.5%, and 99.0% respectively.
Conclusion: According to the results, we concluded that feed-forward Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network with scaled conjugate gradient (trainscg) back propagation learning algorithm can help physicians to predict the pregnancy outcomes (spontaneous abortion and live birth) among pregnant women with lupus by using identified effective variables.
Atefeh Sedighnia , Sharareh Rostam Niakan Kalhori, Mahshid Nasehi , Ahmad Ali Hanafi-Bojd ,
Volume 77, Issue 4 (July 2019)
Abstract
Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is an important infectious disease with high mortality in the world. None of the countries stay safe from TB. Nowadays, different factors such as Co-morbidities, increase TB incidence. World Health Organization (WHO) last report about Iran's TB status shows rising trend of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) and HIV/TB. More than 95% illness and death of TB cases are in developing countries. The most infections are in South East Asia and West Pacific that 56% of them are new cases in the world. The incidence is actually new cases of each year. Incidence prediction is affecting TB prevention, management and control. The purpose of this study is designing and creating a system to predict TB incidence by time series artificial neural networks (ANN) in Iran.
Methods: This study is a retrospective analytic. 10651 TB cases that registered on Iran’s Stop TB System from March 2014 to March 2016, Were analyzed. Most of reliable data used directly, some of them merged together and create new indicators and two columns used to compute a new indicator. At first, effective variables were evaluating with correlation coefficient tests then extracting by linear regression on SPSS statistical software, version 20 (IBM, Armonk, NY, USA). We used different algorithms and number of neurons in hidden layer and delay in time series neural network. R, MSE (mean squared error) and regression graph were used for compare and select the best network. Incidence prediction neural network were designed on MATLAB® software, version R2014a (Mathworks Inc., Natick, MA, USA).
Results: At first, 23 independent variables entered to study. After correlation coefficient and regression, 12 variables with P≤0.01 in Spearman and P≤0.05 in Pearson were selected. We had the best value of R, MSE (mean squared error) and also regression graph in train, validation and tested by Bayesian regularization algorithm with 10 neuron in hidden layer and two delay.
Conclusion: This study showed that artificial neural network had acceptable function to extract knowledge from TB raw data; ANN is beneficial to TB incidence prediction.
